What Happens If and When Obamacare is Repealed
Donald Trump and the Republicans have vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and it is very likely they will follow through. If they repeal the ACA and do not replace it with something comparable or better, as many as 25 million people could be without insurance by 2020. Additionally, many if not most people may have less comprehensive coverage and higher co-pays, but that all depends on what kind of replacement plan the congress approves if any. And that — is only the tip of this ugly iceberg.
This blog only deals with repeal while the House has approved a replacement bill, the U.S. Senate has not. We will cover that as thoroughly as possible when it happens.
Few remember this, but just before ACA passed in 2010 the health insurance companies hiked their rates significantly. Since then they have raised rates several more times. Let’s be clear here, ACA is NOT raising your rates, there is no provision in the act that allows for that. Many have complained that ACA is responsible for increased rates, but that’s really an empty claim because we don’t know what insurance rates would have done if there was no ACA. One thing for sure, rate hikes always come from the Insurance companies. If ACA is repealed you will get far less coverage, but you can be sure the insurance companies don’t reduce their rates by a single dime.
If ACA is repealed everyone will feel it, even the very wealthy. The difference is they can afford to self-insure– maybe. Today the cost of some procedures and care is so high that it might even hurt the mega rich to have to pay out-of-pocket. 10 years ago I had a heart transplant. According to the National Transplant Foundation, the average cost today for the same procedure would be $1.2 million. That price includes first-year medications and care. You can review other costs here. (http://www.transplants.org/faq/how-much-does-transplant-cost). A heart/lung transplant would cost $2.3 million. That would make even a wealthy person sit up and take notice. (If you would like to examine the effect of ACA on health care costs Gary Cameron of the Reuters news service.wrote this for Time.http://time.com/money/4503325/obama-health-care-costs-obamacare/ )
The Trump administration is also talking about cuts to both Medicare and Medicaid. It remains to be seen what that means but this congress is in a cutting mood, so it is unlikely that their actions will result in anything beneficial to many with chronic illnesses. You can also expect that if there was ever any hope of extending coverage for anti-rejection drugs past 36 months for Kidney transplant patients it ended with Trump’s Inauguration.
Very few people are aware that Medicare is also affected by repeal of Obamacare. There are several areas that will be negatively impacted but the part that helps seniors with Prescription costs will take the biggest hit.
The Senate bill slashes tax revenues by $701 billion over a decade, while reducing Medicaid spending by $772 billion versus current law. Overall, the Senate bill reduces federal health care spending by $1 trillion.
The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities estimates the bill’s tax benefits for the 400 highest earning households in America alone are equal to the cost of keeping Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion in four states that cover 726,000 people.
- The ACA helps seniors in the donut hole until it is closed. Copayments required for brand-name and generic drugs are being phased down to the standard 25 percent by 2020. Brand-name drugs discounts from manufacturers increase each year in the coverage gap. Copayments for generic drugs are reduced by seven percentage points each year until the coverage gap is eliminated.
- In 2016, seniors receive a 55 percent discount on brand-name prescription drugs and a 42 percent discount on generic drugs, which is applied at the pharmacy. Below are the amounts that beneficiaries will pay for their medications until the donut hole is closed in 2020.
- 2016: 45 percent for brand-names and 58 percent for generics
- 2017: 40 percent for brand-names and 51 percent for generics
- 2018: 35 percent for brand-names and 44 percent for generics
- 2019: 30 percent for brand-names and 37 percent for generics
- 2020: 25 percent for brand-names and 25 percent for generics
Ever since the Affordable Care Act (ACA) passed in 2010, Republicans have vowed to repeal it. They have made many claims about what a “Disaster” it is, but offer little in the way of evidence other than point to increased premiums. Premiums, though, were out of control long before there was an ACA and many experts say that if anything the sweeping health care bill slowed their increase. If Republicans are successful in repealing the act you will be affected in many ways, now and in the future. I’d like to keep this blog relatively short so I will only address four issues here, but they are big ones.
- Pre-existing conditions
- Children on your policy until age 26
- Medicaid changes
- Medicare adjustments
Effect Number One. Pre-existing Conditions
People have short memories so let me remind you what the health insurance environment was like prior to 2010. Example. A woman I know was having problems sleeping,, that’s all. She was in otherwise excellent health. To help her sleep, her doctor prescribed Remeron which is also an anti-depressant. Due to family circumstances, she had to move to a different state, a state in which her current health insurance had no coverage. She thought nothing of it because she was healthy, so she shopped around for new insurance, found one she liked and applied. Almost immediately she was denied coverage due to a pre-existing condition of depression even though she was not suffering from depression. The drug, Remeron, was prescribed to help her sleep but the new insurance company ignored that detail. Her only option was to keep her old insurance from another state even though she was out of network. Under those circumstances, this healthy woman had become uninsurable because of one medication that was not even prescribed for the purpose identified in the rejection notice. That is what we likely will be returning to. But there’s more.
If the ACA is repealed without a replacement plan and maybe even with one here’s what you can expect.
Let’s say a young couple finds they are about to have a child. The husband just got a new job in another state so they will have to move and get new insurance as well. Here’s what they are likely to run into if ACA is repealed.
- Pregnancy could easily be considered a pre-existing condition, at least the insurance companies would have that option. That means when this family looks for new coverage insurers could deny it or charge exorbitant rates.
- Even if they got insurance, the plan would likely not include maternity coverage, as was the case for over 60 percent of enrollees in individual market plans in 2011.
- They’d get no financial assistance to help ensure they can find a good plan within their budget and there would be no help in paying their out-of-pocket costs.
- Healthy pregnancy, births, and newborns programs would no longer exist, putting the family at greater risk for other health problems.
- And the family would likely have to pay out of pocket for each new baby visit and any ensuing treatments, injections or other procedures.
Some estimates indicate that nearly a half of all Americans have a pre-existing medical condition that could make it difficult to find insurance, and about 3 million of them are now insured under the ACA. If and when it is repealed those who have insurance could lose it and those without insurance, or who leave their old plans for any reason such as job change, divorce, or relocation, may find it impossible to get a new plan. The Kaiser Family Foundation projects that if the pre-existing conditions provision is repealed, 52 million Americans could be at risk of being denied health care coverage.
Effect Number Two. Children Covered by Parent’s Insurance to Age 26
If ACA is repealed and not replaced with something equivalent or better, that means that once you turn 19 or are no longer a full-time student, you are on your own for insurance coverage, increasing the financial burden on young adults who are unemployed, underemployed, contractors, working for small companies, or those starting their own businesses. Young people are less likely to get seriously ill and often don’t use insurance when they have it. Insurance companies would love to have these men and women paying premiums again, though, because they use so little of the coverage and help to defray the cost of covering others.
This is a popular benefit among some Republican office holders because their children are affected so it might be added to whatever replacement the GOP drafts, although the age limit could potentially get lowered by a year or two.
Effect Number Three. Medicaid
One of the most appealing aspects of health-care reform for many was the ability to get subsidized insurance policies, reducing out-of-pocket costs. According to Kaiser Health News, all but 19 states expanded the income limits for people to get Medicaid insurance and in some cases limits were pushed to 300 percent of the federal poverty level. Also, tax credits beyond that helped even middle-class workers and families afford their monthly premiums. The Affordable Care Act was affordable largely because of the Government subsidies. While all Republicans in congress opposed the expansion of Medicaid, many Republican State Governors accepted the plan for their states. Medicaid is funded by the Feds but run by the states. If ACA is repealed and Medicaid expansion goes out the window the states will be left with the choice of funding it or telling their citizens that they are cutting the program. That could have disastrous effects for Republicans in coming elections.
Based on the resistance that red states had to the idea of expanding Medicaid coverage in the first place — even with the federal government covering almost all of the expense — it will not be surprising to see a GOP plan that either decreases or completely remove the tax credits or other subsidies. Almost all Republicans agree it must go. There seems to be little agreement on if or how to replace it.
Effect Number Four. Medicare Cuts
Here comes trouble. Like Social Security this is the healthcare third rail, it can mean political suicide for anyone that makes any negative changes in the national health care system for people age 65 and over. The great majority of them are not working, have no income other than Social Security and some savings and they are uninsurable outside of Medicare (supplemental programs excepted). Some see Medicare as totally separate from the ACA and in some ways it is, but they are also intertwined. Too many seniors think they are immune from change, they are not.
According to the Kaiser Foundation, a full repeal of ACA would restore higher payments for services performed under the managed-care portion of Medicare known as Medicare Advantage. That, then, could lead to increased Medicare Advantage premiums. It could also mean an end to free preventive services and could result in greater premiums and increased out-of-pocket costs, or both.
Perhaps the most notable change would be to reverse efforts to close the “doughnut hole” for prescription drugs. One provision of the Affordable Care Act dramatically cut the amount that seniors on Medicare have to pay for their medicines under Medicare Part D. prior to the ACA’s passage, beneficiaries got some coverage up to a certain dollar amount, and then none until high-dollar, catastrophic coverage provisions kicked in. Once in that “donut hole” seniors paid the full price. Under ACA that coverage gap was supposed to end in 2020.
Now here’s what they are NOT telling you. It is now projected that ACA spending between now and 2020 is $1 trillion LOWER than the original Congressional Budget Office estimate. That means the trust fund for Medicare is now projected to remain solvent 11 years longer than before the Affordable Care Act was enacted. Strangely none of the repeal advocates has mentioned that fact.
For these reasons, it is important to be clear. The repeal of Obamacare will mean that Medicare beneficiaries will have to pay millions more for prescription drugs and won’t have access to free preventive care, while the program itself will be put in financial jeopardy.
As long as this blog is, it doesn’t begin to cover the full impact of ACA repeal and it says nothing about replacement because we have been unable to find a single plan for doing that that has been released. There are several people who say they have plans, but none have provided documents yet. We’ll keep our eye on it and do what we can to keep you informed. We’ll report more as we can.
Bob Aronson is the founder of Facebook’s 4300 member Organ Transplant Initiative and also of this site, Bob’s Newheart. Look through the index and you’ll find nearly 300 blogs of interest to Transplant patients, their families, friends, caregivers, donors and donor families.
Posted on January 21, 2017, in Health care and tagged ACA, Affordable Care Act, catastrophic, co-pays, congress, coverage gap, donul hole, insurance, Medicaid, Medicare, Obamacare, pre-existing conditions, premiums, transplant, Trump. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.